Zachary Cohen takes a look at a Week 16 meeting between the Steelers and Ravens.On Saturday, December 21st, the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. We’ll continue diving into all of the standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 16 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
How To Watch Steelers vs. Ravens
When: Saturday, December 21st at 4:30 pm ETWhere: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland
Channel: FOX
Steelers vs. Ravens Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, December 18th. Look around for the best prices!Moneyline: Ravens -285, Steelers +230
Spread: Ravens -6 (-115), Steelers +6 (-105)
Total: Over 45 (-110), Under 45 (-110)
Steelers vs. Ravens Analysis
According to our DraftKings betting splits page and Circa betting splits page, the Steelers are the more popular bet in this game. However, this spread was Ravens -4 back on December 10th. It’s up at -6 at DraftKings Sportsbook now. It’s also -6.5 at Circa. Last week’s results definitely factored into all of the movement. The Ravens beat the Giants to a pulp, coming away with a 35-14 win at MetLife Stadium. Meanwhile, the Steelers lost by 14 in a big road game against the Eagles. Still, many will point to the close history between these teams to explain why Pittsburgh is the right side. The Steelers are also 13-2-2 against the spread when facing the Ravens as underdogs under Mike Tomlin. But I tend to like the way the sharp bettors are going in this game, which is why I’d lay the points with Baltimore.It’s just a tough blow for Pittsburgh that George Pickens is out. In the two games the Steelers have played since Pickens hurt his hamstring, their EPA per play is a miserable -0.182. And it’s -0.078 when it comes to Dropback EPA per play. And it’s -0.078 when it comes to Dropback EPA per play. Well, if Pittsburgh isn’t moving the ball efficiently here, this could get ugly in a hurry. Baltimore is second in the NFL in EPA per play (0.198) this season, and Lamar Jackson is absolutely lighting it up lately. The Ravens are going to find some success in this one, especially with it being a late afternoon/early evening game in Baltimore. They love standalone games that require the lights. And this is a big one for Jackson, who has a primetime game to show the world why he belongs in the MVP conversation still.
The Steelers defense also isn’t quite as good as it seems. In fact, Jalen Hurts had been struggling heading into last week’s game, but he went 25 for 32 for 290 yards and two touchdowns. We’re also only a few weeks removed from Joe Burrow throwing for 309 yards and three scores against this team. It’s just not impossible to hit big plays over the top against this secondary, so Jackson should be able to exploit that. He’s Pro Football Focus’ top-graded passer (91.2) in 2024.
It’s also worth noting that there are quite a few trends that favor Baltimore, so it’s not all pro-Tomlin numbers that paint a good picture for Pittsburgh. The Ravens are 38-27-5 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 60.0% to 75.0% under John Harbaugh. They’re also going to be a little more desperate than their opponent here, as the Steelers will clinch the division with a win on Saturday. Baltimore needs a win to stay alive. And I don’t just think the Ravens will win, but I think they’ll do it somewhat comfortably.
I also wouldn’t be shocked if this game goes Under. I thought these teams were going to get involved in a shootout the last time they played, but it turned into a classic AFC North battle. Now that it’ll be a little colder, we’re probably looking at more of the same. And that’s especially true with the way Pittsburgh’s offense has looked lately.
Steelers vs. Ravens Player Props
Mark Andrews To Score A Touchdown (+225)Andrews only had two catches for 22 yards when he faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but he has been on a heater since then. The 29-year-old has scored in three consecutive games. He continues to be a favorite for Jackson near the end zone. So, at +225 odds, I like the idea of playing him to score. I also don’t hate that Baltimore uses Andrews for their version of the tush push. That means that there’s also a chance he can score in a short-yardage situation by the goal line.
Steelers vs. Ravens Pick
I won’t be getting involved in this game unless I tease the Ravens down with somebody on Sunday. However, I do have a slight lean on Baltimore to cover. I’m the biggest Russell Wilson believer we have at the company. He gave me the best football season I have ever had as a Wisconsin fan. But this Steelers offense is trending in the wrong direction. Perhaps that will change when Pickens comes back. But you can’t afford to be off offensively when facing this Ravens team.Lean: Ravens -6 (-110)
